{ "meta": { "title": "ANCY'S BRIEFING Track Record", "season": "2026 spring–summer", "updated": "2026-10-10", "currency": "JPY", "note": "発走前公開予想を1点あたり一定額で検証したシミュレーション記録。営業実績ではなく予想精度の検証用。将来の的中・利益を保証しない。", "summary": { "races": 56, "invested": 56500, "payout": 30440, "roi_pct": 54, "honmei_win_pct": 20, "hits": 11, "partial": 10, "misses": 35, "folds": 0, "fold_policy": "期待値（EV）が基準未満、またはCONFが閾値未満のレースはNo Bet（FOLDED）として参加しない。2026秋シーズンより系統記録を開始。" } }, "folds": { "policy": "モデルが分析しても、EV≤0 または メタ認知後のCONFが下限未満なら資金を投下しない。Foldは敗北ではなく資本防衛の成功指標。", "logging_since": "2026-09", "entries": [], "note": "春〜夏25戦は全戦参加（Fold記録なし）。秋G1以降、見送りレースをここに追記する。" }, "races": [ { "date": "2026-04-12", "race": "桜花賞", "grade": "G1", "honmei": "ドリームコア", "gate": 14, "confidence": 95, "finish": 9, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.0", "model": "v1.0", "url": "/races/oka-sho-2026.html", "postmortem": null, "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 94, "F02": 88, "F03": 90, "F04": 92, "note": "素質・フォーム高評価。展開読みが甘く全損。" }, "noise_tags": [] }, { "date": "2026-04-18", "race": "中山グランドジャンプ", "grade": "J・G1", "honmei": "エコロデュエル", "gate": 6, "confidence": 88, "finish": 1, "invested": 1000, "payout": 2010, "roi_pct": 201, "result": "HIT", "model_used": "v1.0", "model": "v1.0", "url": "/races/nakayama-grand-jump-2026.html", "postmortem": null, "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 86, "F02": 92, "F03": 90, "F04": 88, "note": "障害適性（F02）が主因。" }, "noise_tags": [] }, { "date": "2026-04-19", "race": "皐月賞", "grade": "G1", "honmei": "ロブチェン", "gate": 4, "confidence": 92, "finish": 1, "invested": 1500, "payout": 1350, "roi_pct": 90, "result": "PARTIAL", "model_used": "v1.0", "model": "v1.0", "url": "/races/satsuki-sho-2026.html", "postmortem": null, "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 96, "F02": 88, "F03": 90, "F04": 86, "note": "絶対能力F01が主導。一部的中。" }, "noise_tags": [] }, { "date": "2026-05-03", "race": "天皇賞（春）", "grade": "G1", "honmei": "クロワデュノール", "gate": 7, "confidence": 92, "finish": 1, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.1", "model": "v1.1", "url": "/races/tenno-sho-spring-2026.html", "postmortem": null, "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 95, "F02": 84, "F03": 94, "F04": 88, "note": "距離F03は的確。買い目設計で取りこぼし。" }, "noise_tags": [ { "type": "model", "label": "配分設計" } ] }, { "date": "2026-05-10", "race": "NHKマイルC", "grade": "G1", "honmei": "エコロアルバ", "gate": 10, "confidence": 85, "finish": 9, "invested": 500, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.1", "model": "v1.1", "url": "/races/nhk-mile-cup-2026.html", "postmortem": null, "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 88, "F02": 82, "F03": 86, "F04": 84, "note": "マイル適性は妥当。相手関係の読み違い。" }, "noise_tags": [] }, { "date": "2026-05-17", "race": "ヴィクトリアマイル", "grade": "G1", "honmei": "エンブロイダリー", "gate": 12, "confidence": 85, "finish": 1, "invested": 1000, "payout": 2340, "roi_pct": 234, "result": "HIT", "model_used": "v1.1", "model": "v1.1", "url": "/races/victoria-mile-2026.html", "postmortem": null, "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 90, "F02": 86, "F03": 88, "F04": 85, "note": "バランス型。F01とF03が支え。" }, "noise_tags": [] }, { "date": "2026-05-17", "race": "栗東S", "grade": "L", "honmei": "ジャスティンアース", "gate": 13, "confidence": 62, "finish": 6, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.1", "model": "v1.1", "url": "/races/ritto-s-2026.html", "postmortem": null, "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 78, "F02": 70, "F03": 72, "F04": 68, "note": "CONF低め。参加自体が疑問（後のFold規律の原型）。" }, "noise_tags": [] }, { "date": "2026-05-23", "race": "欅S", "grade": "OP", "honmei": "ストレングス", "gate": 1, "confidence": 88, "finish": 10, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.3", "model": "v1.3", "lesson_applied_to": "v1.4", "url": "/races/keyaki-stakes-2026.html", "postmortem": "/columns/post-race-analysis-vol1.html", "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 88, "F02": 80, "F03": 82, "F04": 90, "note": "フォーム過信。" }, "noise_tags": [ { "type": "model", "label": "モデル欠陥" } ] }, { "date": "2026-05-23", "race": "平安S", "grade": "G3", "honmei": "ハグ", "gate": 6, "confidence": 88, "finish": 16, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.3", "model": "v1.3", "lesson_applied_to": "v1.4", "url": "/races/heian-stakes-2026.html", "postmortem": "/columns/post-race-analysis-vol1.html", "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 86, "F02": 78, "F03": 80, "F04": 90, "note": "ダート適性の読み違い。" }, "noise_tags": [ { "type": "model", "label": "モデル欠陥" } ] }, { "date": "2026-05-24", "race": "オークス", "grade": "G1", "honmei": "アランカール", "gate": 3, "confidence": 84, "finish": 8, "invested": 1000, "payout": 1150, "roi_pct": 115, "result": "HIT", "model_used": "v1.4", "model": "v1.4", "lesson_applied_to": "v1.4.1", "url": "/races/oaks-2026.html", "postmortem": "/columns/post-race-analysis-vol2.html", "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 88, "F02": 72, "F03": 86, "F04": 84, "note": "F02（枠×ペース）が弱点。ヘッジが救った。" }, "noise_tags": [ { "type": "physical", "label": "キネティック・トラップ" } ] }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "race": "日本ダービー", "grade": "G1", "honmei": "コンジェスタス", "gate": 6, "confidence": 88, "finish": 9, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.4.1", "model": "v1.4.1", "lesson_applied_to": "v1.4.2", "url": "/races/japan-derby-2026.html", "postmortem": "/columns/post-race-analysis-vol3.html", "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 82, "F02": 84, "F03": 86, "F04": 94, "note": "F04（新鮮さ）過大評価。真のF01上位を降格。" }, "noise_tags": [ { "type": "model", "label": "CFI過大評価" } ] }, { "date": "2026-06-07", "race": "安田記念", "grade": "G1", "honmei": "ガイアフォース", "gate": 14, "confidence": null, "finish": 2, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.4.2", "model": "v1.4.2", "lesson_applied_to": "v1.4.4", "url": "/races/yasuda-kinen-2026.html", "postmortem": "/columns/post-race-analysis-vol4.html", "lesson": "Bias-First / 前残りヘッジ", "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 88, "F02": 70, "F03": 86, "F04": 84, "note": "差し馬場バイアスを過信。F02が誤読。" }, "noise_tags": [ { "type": "model", "label": "バイアス未反映" }, { "type": "physical", "label": "前残り展開" } ] }, { "date": "2026-06-14", "race": "宝塚記念", "grade": "G1", "honmei": "メイショウタバル", "gate": 16, "confidence": 78, "finish": 1, "invested": 1000, "payout": 4470, "roi_pct": 447, "result": "HIT", "model_used": "v1.4.2", "model": "v1.4.2", "url": "/races/takarazuka-kinen-2026.html", "postmortem": "/columns/takarazuka-kinen-447-analysis.html", "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 90, "F02": 92, "F03": 94, "F04": 86, "note": "非根幹F03＋重馬場F02が的確。外枠はノイズだが克服。" }, "noise_tags": [ { "type": "physical", "label": "外枠距離ロス（克服）" }, { "type": "value", "label": "Value" } ] }, { "date": "2026-06-21", "race": "府中牝馬S", "grade": "G3", "honmei": "ヴァルキリーバース", "gate": 6, "confidence": null, "finish": 14, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.4.2", "model": "v1.4.2", "lesson_applied_to": "v1.4.4", "url": "/races/fuchu-himba-stakes-2026.html", "postmortem": "/columns/post-race-analysis-vol4.html", "lesson": "Rebound CFI", "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 84, "F02": 80, "F03": 82, "F04": 92, "note": "休養明け好走の反動を未検知。" }, "noise_tags": [ { "type": "model", "label": "Rebound未適用" } ] }, { "date": "2026-06-28", "race": "函館記念", "grade": "G3", "honmei": "ファウストラーゼン", "gate": 2, "confidence": 88, "finish": 1, "invested": 1000, "payout": 2800, "roi_pct": 280, "result": "HIT", "model_used": "v1.4.2", "model": "v1.4.2", "lesson_applied_to": "v1.4.3", "url": "/races/hakodate-kinen-2026.html", "postmortem": "/columns/post-race-analysis-vol4.html", "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 86, "F02": 88, "F03": 84, "F04": 90, "note": "ハンデ・夏競馬適性。印外2着はShadow-Alphaの学習材料。" }, "noise_tags": [ { "type": "value", "label": "Value" } ] }, { "date": "2026-06-28", "race": "ラジオNIKKEI賞", "grade": "G3", "honmei": "リッツパーティー", "gate": 5, "confidence": 88, "finish": 3, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.4.2", "model": "v1.4.2", "lesson_applied_to": "v1.4.3", "url": "/races/radio-nikkei-sho-2026.html", "postmortem": "/columns/post-race-analysis-vol4.html", "lesson": "Mark-Rank / Shadow-Alpha", "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 88, "F02": 86, "F03": 88, "F04": 90, "note": "総合上位を▲に置いた序列ミス。" }, "noise_tags": [ { "type": "model", "label": "Mark-Rank違反" } ] }, { "date": "2026-07-04", "race": "博多ステークス", "grade": "3勝", "honmei": "サウンドムーブ", "gate": 4, "confidence": 88, "finish": 2, "invested": 1000, "payout": 580, "roi_pct": 58, "result": "PARTIAL", "model_used": "v1.4.2", "model": "v1.4.2", "lesson_applied_to": "v1.4.4", "url": "/races/hakata-stakes-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/hakata-stakes-2026.html#postmortem", "lesson": "Ability-over-Draw Cap / Shadow-Alpha", "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 94, "F02": 88, "F03": 90, "F04": 91, "note": "◎2着。▲を枠順で降格した序列ミス。3着印外で3連複外れ。" }, "noise_tags": [ { "type": "model", "label": "枠順過大適用" }, { "type": "model", "label": "Shadow-Alpha漏れ" }, { "type": "value", "label": "馬連ヘッジ成功" } ] }, { "date": "2026-07-05", "race": "大沼ステークス", "grade": "L", "honmei": "プロミストジーン", "gate": 4, "confidence": 88, "finish": 5, "invested": 1000, "payout": 650, "roi_pct": 65, "result": "PARTIAL", "model_used": "v1.4.4", "model": "v1.4.4", "lesson_applied_to": "v1.4.5", "url": "/races/onuma-stakes-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/onuma-stakes-2026.html#postmortem", "lesson": "Bias-First / 軸固定リスク", "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 89, "F02": 88, "F03": 89, "F04": 90, "note": "▲11逃げ切りV。2-3着△6・7。本線◎○軸で馬連・3連複全外れ。" }, "noise_tags": [ { "type": "value", "label": "ワイドヘッジ成功" }, { "type": "value", "label": "Bias-First成功" }, { "type": "model", "label": "軸固定リスク" } ] }, { "date": "2026-07-05", "race": "北九州記念", "grade": "G3", "honmei": "フリッカージャブ", "gate": 12, "confidence": 88, "finish": 1, "invested": 1000, "payout": 1780, "roi_pct": 178, "result": "HIT", "model_used": "v1.4.4", "model": "v1.4.4", "lesson_applied_to": "v1.4.5", "url": "/races/kitakyushu-kinen-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/kitakyushu-kinen-2026.html#postmortem", "lesson": "HAAF / Shadow-Alpha / Bias-First", "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 94, "F02": 88, "F03": 96, "F04": 98, "note": "◎1着。ワイド12-2・12-9的中。馬連12-2未購入で機会損失。" }, "noise_tags": [ { "type": "value", "label": "HAAF成功" }, { "type": "value", "label": "Shadow-Alpha成功" }, { "type": "value", "label": "Bias-First成功" }, { "type": "model", "label": "馬連設計漏れ" } ] }, { "date": "2026-07-05", "race": "ジュライステークス", "grade": "OP", "honmei": "メリークリスマス", "gate": 1, "confidence": 87, "finish": 3, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.4.4", "model": "v1.4.4", "lesson_applied_to": "v1.4.5", "url": "/races/july-stakes-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/july-stakes-2026.html#postmortem", "lesson": "Bias-First / Front-Runner Capture", "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 88, "F02": 83, "F03": 89, "F04": 90, "note": "◎3着。印外7逃げ切りVをF04で排除。Bias-First違反で全損。" }, "noise_tags": [ { "type": "model", "label": "Bias-First違反" }, { "type": "model", "label": "逃げ馬捕捉漏れ" }, { "type": "model", "label": "F04過大適用" } ] }, { "date": "2026-07-19", "race": "函館2歳ステークス", "grade": "G3", "honmei": "ダイメイビッグボス", "gate": 12, "confidence": null, "finish": 10, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.4.5", "model": "v1.4.5", "lesson_applied_to": "v1.4.6", "url": "/races/hakodate-2yo-stakes-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/hakodate-2yo-stakes-2026.html#postmortem", "lesson": "Portfolio Decorrelation / Contradiction-to-Ticket", "conf_breakdown": { "note": "数値スコア未設定の定性レポート。▲9は2着も、全5点を11軸に固定して全損。記載した内枠リスクを買い目へ反映できず。" }, "noise_tags": [ { "type": "model", "label": "単一軸100%依存" }, { "type": "model", "label": "反証材料の未反映" }, { "type": "model", "label": "印と買い目の不整合" } ] }, { "date": "2026-07-19", "race": "小倉記念", "grade": "G3", "honmei": "ジョバンニ", "gate": 17, "confidence": null, "finish": 2, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.4.5", "model": "v1.4.5", "lesson_applied_to": "v1.4.6", "url": "/races/kokura-kinen-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/kokura-kinen-2026.html#postmortem", "lesson": "Portfolio Decorrelation / Opponent-Set Risk", "conf_breakdown": { "note": "数値スコア未設定の定性レポート。◎17は2着も、全5点を相手6・9へ実質固定して全損。軸評価○・相手選定×・配分×。" }, "noise_tags": [ { "type": "value", "label": "本命連軸評価" }, { "type": "model", "label": "相手2頭100%依存" }, { "type": "model", "label": "シナリオ分散不足" } ] }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "race": "関屋記念", "grade": "G3", "honmei": "メタルスピード", "gate": 14, "confidence": null, "finish": 14, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.4.6", "model": "v1.4.6", "lesson_applied_to": "", "url": "/races/sekiya-kinen-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/sekiya-kinen-2026.html#postmortem", "lesson": "Bias-Direction Verification / Going-Severity Tiering", "conf_breakdown": { "note": "◎14は14着（最下位）。斎藤騎手「馬場が重すぎ・返し馬から進んでいけず」。不良馬場の判定は当てたが枠バイアスを外有利と誤読し、勝ち馬3は内を突いて上がり33.7。前残り仮説へ100%配分し、差し決着への配分がゼロだった。" }, "noise_tags": [ { "type": "model", "label": "バイアス方向の誤り" }, { "type": "model", "label": "道悪耐性の外挿" }, { "type": "model", "label": "展開仮説100%集中" } ] }, { "date": "2026-07-26", "race": "東海ステークス", "grade": "G3", "honmei": "ドンインザムード", "gate": 5, "confidence": 86, "finish": 3, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.4.6", "model": "v1.4.6", "lesson_applied_to": "", "url": "/races/tokai-stakes-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/tokai-stakes-2026.html#postmortem", "lesson": "Opponent-Set Collapse / Single-Axis Concentration", "conf_breakdown": { "F01": null, "F02": null, "F03": null, "F04": null, "note": "◎5は3着（複勝110円）で軸評価は機能。○7=10着・▲8=9着・☆13=14着と相手3頭が総崩れ。的中は三連複5-11-14（4,180円）だが、勝ち馬14は印にもフォーメーション3列目にも不在。全10点が5を含み単一軸依存100%・独立出口0円。" }, "noise_tags": [ { "type": "value", "label": "本命3着（軸機能）" }, { "type": "model", "label": "相手3頭総崩れ" }, { "type": "model", "label": "単一軸100%依存" }, { "type": "model", "label": "勝ち馬を全列から除外" } ] }, { "date": "2026-08-08", "race": "エルムステークス", "grade": "G3", "honmei": "テーオーパスワード", "gate": 5, "confidence": null, "finish": 3, "invested": 1000, "payout": 2160, "roi_pct": 216, "result": "HIT", "model_used": "v1.4.6", "model": "v1.4.6", "lesson_applied_to": "", "url": "/races/elm-stakes-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/elm-stakes-2026.html#postmortem", "lesson": "Independent-Exit Cost / Draw-Penalty Review", "conf_breakdown": { "note": "◎5は3着・○11は2着でワイド5-11（540円）的中。1番人気8は8着で危険な人気馬の判定は的中。1着3ルクソールカフェを枠順減点により期待値0.64と判定し買い目から除外。独立出口ワイド2-4は不発で、原案の500円集中なら払戻2,700円だった（540円の機会損失）。" }, "noise_tags": [ { "type": "value", "label": "危険な人気馬の判定的中" }, { "type": "value", "label": "コア的中" }, { "type": "model", "label": "勝ち馬を枠順減点で除外" }, { "type": "model", "label": "独立出口が不発" } ] }, { "date": "2026-08-16", "race": "札幌記念", "grade": "G2", "honmei": "サクラファレル", "gate": 8, "confidence": null, "finish": 2, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.4.6", "model": "v1.4.6", "lesson_applied_to": "", "url": "/races/sapporo-kinen-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/sapporo-kinen-2026.html#postmortem", "lesson": "Elimination Risk / Independent-Exit Correlation", "conf_breakdown": { "note": "◎8サクラファレルは2着で評価自体は妥当。しかし1着は父ハーツクライ【0-0-0-11】を根拠に「投資対象としては完全な消し」と明記した15シェイクユアハート、3着は無印・10番人気の14レディネス。3連複7点とワイド3点すべて不的中。独立出口として確保したワイド3点はいずれも○13か▲4を含み、13が5着・4が6着で機能しなかった。" }, "noise_tags": [ { "type": "model", "label": "消しと明記した馬が勝利" }, { "type": "model", "label": "独立出口が○▲に相関" }, { "type": "value", "label": "◎は2着で軸評価は妥当" } ] }, { "date": "2026-08-16", "race": "中京記念", "grade": "G3", "honmei": "ナムラコスモス", "gate": 10, "confidence": null, "finish": 15, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.4.6", "model": "v1.4.6", "lesson_applied_to": "", "url": "/races/chukyo-kinen-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/chukyo-kinen-2026.html#postmortem", "lesson": "Weight-Allowance Overweight / Independent-Exit Correlation", "conf_breakdown": { "note": "◎10ナムラコスモスは15着に大敗し、52kgの斤量優位を最重視した判断が外れた。同じ52kgの△9リリージョワも14着で、斤量恩恵という前提自体が成立しなかった。一方1着は△3ラヴァンダ、3着は▲12サトノシャイニングで印は機能しており、2着5ミニトランザットのみ無印。3連複3-5-12は3,260円。独立出口3点はすべて○7カネラフィーナ（8着）を含み機能しなかった。" }, "noise_tags": [ { "type": "model", "label": "斤量恩恵の過大評価" }, { "type": "model", "label": "独立出口が○に相関" }, { "type": "value", "label": "1着△・3着▲を的中" } ] }, { "date": "2026-08-22", "race": "朱鷺ステークス", "grade": "L", "honmei": "タガノエルピーダ", "gate": 8, "confidence": null, "finish": 6, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.4.6", "model": "v1.4.6", "lesson_applied_to": "", "url": "/races/toki-stakes-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/toki-stakes-2026.html#postmortem", "lesson": "Exit Concentration on ○", "conf_breakdown": { "note": "1着から7着までが同タイム1:20.2という大接戦。◎8タガノエルピーダは6着、○14ランフォーヴァウは16着。一方▲5ガロンヌが14番人気で2着、△16ショウナンザナドゥが1着に入っており、印の下位2頭で決着している。ワイド5−16は9,010円、馬連5−16は29,230円。独立出口として置いた複勝14は○が16着で不発。" }, "noise_tags": [ { "type": "model", "label": "独立出口を○に集中" }, { "type": "model", "label": "▲△の組み合わせを持たず" }, { "type": "value", "label": "▲が14番人気で2着" } ] }, { "date": "2026-08-22", "race": "クローバー賞", "grade": "OP", "honmei": "ラードンチェイス", "gate": 10, "confidence": null, "finish": 4, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.4.6", "model": "v1.4.6", "lesson_applied_to": "", "url": "/races/clover-sho-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/clover-sho-2026.html#postmortem", "lesson": "Elimination Risk / Exit Concentration on ○", "conf_breakdown": { "note": "◎10ラードンチェイスはクビ差の4着、○13ウィエダンドは5着。1着は△6ブルージェイ、2着は距離延長を理由に「消し」と明記した7フレイコン、3着は芝適性なしとして一括で評価外に置いた地方ダート勢の12エイシンウルトラン（60.4倍）。3連複6−7−12は5,940円。独立出口の複勝13は、14頭立てで3着までのところ5着で不発。" }, "noise_tags": [ { "type": "model", "label": "消し評価の2頭が2・3着" }, { "type": "model", "label": "地方ダート勢の一括除外" }, { "type": "model", "label": "独立出口を○に集中" } ] }, { "date": "2026-08-22", "race": "障害3歳以上オープン", "grade": "障害OP", "honmei": "ロードオールライト", "gate": 4, "confidence": null, "finish": 5, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.4.6", "model": "v1.4.6", "lesson_applied_to": "", "url": "/races/chukyo-jump-op-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/chukyo-jump-op-2026.html#postmortem", "lesson": "Small-Field Assumption / Non-completion Risk", "conf_breakdown": { "note": "◎4ロードオールライトは完走5頭中の5着、○3ライラスター（1番人気）は競走中止。1着は▲5キャネルで、距離延長を懸念して「勝つより2〜3着」と評価した馬が押し切った。2着1シャンドゥレール・3着6ヴラディアはともに無印。「6頭立てなら紛れが少なく能力どおり決まる」という前提そのものが崩れた。独立出口のワイド3−5は○の競走中止で不発。" }, "noise_tags": [ { "type": "model", "label": "少頭数=能力通りの前提が崩壊" }, { "type": "model", "label": "○が競走中止" }, { "type": "value", "label": "複勝が2着までの検証は的中" } ] }, { "date": "2026-08-23", "race": "新潟2歳ステークス", "grade": "G3", "honmei": "インカルナータ", "gate": 10, "confidence": null, "finish": 9, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.4.6", "model": "v1.4.6", "lesson_applied_to": "", "url": "/races/niigata-2yo-stakes-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/niigata-2yo-stakes-2026.html#postmortem", "lesson": "Honmei Selection / Exit Overlap", "conf_breakdown": { "note": "◎10インカルナータは10頭立ての9着。逃げて上がり33.2秒という前走の内容を最上位の根拠に置いたが、当日の上がりは34.1秒で見せ場がなかった。1着は△2レッチュベルク、2着は○7トウシンマジック。独立出口とした3連複1−2−7とワイド1−7は、いずれも▲1シャンデヴァーグ（5着）を共有しており、2点とも同時に消えた。ワイド2−7は260円、3連複2−3−7は1,540円。" }, "noise_tags": [ { "type": "model", "label": "◎が圏外" }, { "type": "model", "label": "出口2点が同じ馬を共有" }, { "type": "value", "label": "○▲△のうち2頭が1・2着" } ] }, { "date": "2026-08-23", "race": "名古屋城ステークス", "grade": "OP", "honmei": "スナークラファエロ", "gate": 2, "confidence": null, "finish": 16, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.4.6", "model": "v1.4.6", "lesson_applied_to": "", "url": "/races/nagoyajo-stakes-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/nagoyajo-stakes-2026.html#postmortem", "lesson": "Honmei Selection / Missing ○×▲ Exit", "conf_breakdown": { "note": "◎2スナークラファエロは16頭立ての16着。中京ダート3戦3勝という完璧な適性データを最上位の根拠に据えたが、勝ち馬から8馬身以上離された最下位。1着は○1トリポリタニア、2着は▲9マーズオデッセイで、印の上位2頭がそのままワンツーを決めている。ワイド1−9は880円、馬連1−9は1,830円。独立出口として置いたワイド1−13とワイド9−10は、1と9を別々の組に分けたため、最も濃い組み合わせを持っていなかった。" }, "noise_tags": [ { "type": "model", "label": "◎が最下位" }, { "type": "model", "label": "○×▲の組み合わせを持たず" }, { "type": "value", "label": "○1着・▲2着" } ] }, { "date": "2026-08-23", "race": "キーンランドカップ", "grade": "G3", "honmei": "ロジケープ", "gate": 13, "confidence": null, "finish": 6, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.4.6", "model": "v1.4.6", "lesson_applied_to": "", "url": "/races/keeneland-cup-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/keeneland-cup-2026.html#postmortem", "lesson": "Honmei Selection / Elimination Risk", "conf_breakdown": { "note": "◎13ロジケープは6着、○15エイシンディードは15着。1着は「ミッキーアイル産駒の軽さが洋芝でパワー負けする」として無印にした14サウンドモリアーナ。2着▲3パンジャタワー、3着△8ウインカーネリアンで、印の下位2頭は当たっている。3連複3−8−14は4,540円、ワイド3−8は480円。買い目10点はすべて13か15を含む構造で、その2頭がともに崩れた時点で全滅した。" }, "noise_tags": [ { "type": "model", "label": "◎が圏外・○が15着" }, { "type": "model", "label": "無印の馬が勝利" }, { "type": "value", "label": "▲2着・△3着" } ] }, { "date": "2026-08-30", "race": "中京2歳ステークス", "grade": "G3", "honmei": "ジーティーマイカ", "gate": 9, "confidence": null, "finish": 1, "invested": 1000, "payout": 660, "roi_pct": 66, "result": "PARTIAL", "model_used": "v1.5.0", "model": "v1.5.0", "lesson_applied_to": "", "url": "/races/chukyo-2yo-stakes-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/chukyo-2yo-stakes-2026.html#postmortem", "lesson": "Wide BOX Member Selection", "conf_breakdown": { "note": "◎9ジーティーマイカが1着。7戦ぶりに◎が馬券圏内へ入り、v1.5.0のv)で逆張り根拠を明記した本命が勝った。3連複4−7−9（660円）が的中し回収率66%。ただしw)の非本命ワイドBOXは○3・▲7・△5で組んでおり、実際に2着へ来た4シスキンブルームがBOXから漏れた。BOXを3−7−4で組んでいればワイド4−7（400円）も的中していた。ルールは適用できたが、BOXに入れる3頭の選択が新たな課題として残る。" }, "noise_tags": [ { "type": "value", "label": "◎が7戦ぶりに勝利" }, { "type": "value", "label": "v)の逆張り根拠が機能" }, { "type": "model", "label": "ワイドBOXの構成馬を誤選択" } ], "tickets": [ { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 3, 7, 9 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 3, 4, 9 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 3, 5, 9 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 4, 7, 9 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 660, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 5, 7, 9 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "馬連", "combo": [ 3, 9 ], "stake": 200, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 3, 7 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 3, 5 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 5, 7 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" } ], "marks": { "3": "○", "4": "△", "5": "△", "7": "▲", "9": "◎" }, "top3": [ 9, 4, 7 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-30", "race": "新潟記念", "grade": "G3", "honmei": "ダノンシーマ", "gate": 8, "confidence": null, "finish": 3, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.5.0", "model": "v1.5.0", "lesson_applied_to": "", "url": "/races/niigata-kinen-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/niigata-kinen-2026.html#postmortem", "lesson": "v) Non-compliance / BOX Member Selection", "conf_breakdown": { "note": "稍重・雨。◎8ダノンシーマは3着に好走したが、本編10点はすべて不発で0%。1着は本編が無印とした5ゾロアストロ、2着は「消し」と明記した3ロデオドライブ。3連複3−5−8は810円。発走前にv)を不適合と記録したうえで公開した回であり、その判断が結果として裏付けられた形になる。w)のワイドBOXは○2・▲4・☆1で組んだが、実際の非◎入着馬は5と3で、いずれもBOXに含まれていなかった。裏予想（台帳外）は上位3頭すべてに印を打ちながら3連複3−5−8を持たず0%、応援馬券（台帳外）も11ステレンボッシュが11着で0%。" }, "noise_tags": [ { "type": "model", "label": "v)不適合のまま公開" }, { "type": "model", "label": "無印と消しが1・2着" }, { "type": "model", "label": "ワイドBOXの構成馬を誤選択" }, { "type": "value", "label": "◎は3着に好走" } ], "tickets": [ { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 1, 2, 8 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 2, 4, 8 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 2, 8, 9 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 2, 8, 10 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 1, 4, 8 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 4, 8, 9 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 4, 8, 10 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 1, 2 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 1, 4 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 2, 4 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" } ], "marks": { "1": "☆", "2": "○", "4": "▲", "8": "◎", "9": "△", "10": "△" }, "top3": [ 5, 3, 8 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-05", "race": "札幌2歳ステークス", "grade": "G3", "honmei": "コスモハナミズキ", "gate": 4, "confidence": 64, "finish": 2, "invested": 1500, "payout": 630, "roi_pct": 42, "result": "PARTIAL", "model_used": "v1.5.0", "model": "v1.5.0", "url": "/races/sapporo-2yo-stakes-2026.html", "postmortem": null, "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 72, "F02": 88, "F03": 85, "F04": 80, "note": "◎は2着。○◎△が1-2-3を占めたが、非本命BOXが▲8・△6を採り3着の△3を外した。" }, "noise_tags": [], "tickets": [ { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 2, 4 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 160, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 3, 4 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 470, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 2, 8 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 2, 6 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 6, 8 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 4, 8 ], "stake": 300, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 4, 6 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "単勝", "combo": [ 4 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 2, 4, 8 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 2, 6, 8 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "other" }, { "bet": "3連単", "combo": [ 4, 6, 8 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連単", "combo": [ 2, 4, 8 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連単", "combo": [ 2, 4, 8 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" } ], "marks": { "2": "○", "3": "△", "4": "◎", "6": "△", "7": "×", "8": "▲" }, "top3": [ 2, 4, 3 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-05", "race": "京成杯オータムハンデキャップ", "grade": "G3", "honmei": "ディールメーカー", "gate": 12, "confidence": 69, "finish": 8, "invested": 1500, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.5.0", "model": "v1.5.0", "url": "/races/keisei-hai-autumn-handicap-2026.html", "postmortem": null, "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 82, "F02": 85, "F03": 86, "F04": 85, "note": "◎8着。1着は注に置いた08、2着3着はいずれも消した07・03。開幕週の前有利想定が空振り。" }, "noise_tags": [], "tickets": [ { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 6, 9 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 9, 13 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 6, 13 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "馬連", "combo": [ 9, 12 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "馬連", "combo": [ 12, 13 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "馬連", "combo": [ 6, 12 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "馬連", "combo": [ 10, 12 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 11, 12 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 5, 12 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 8, 12 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 6, 9, 12 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 9, 12, 13 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 6, 12, 13 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 6, 9, 13 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "other" }, { "bet": "3連単", "combo": [ 9, 12, 13 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" } ], "marks": { "2": "注", "5": "×", "6": "△", "8": "注", "9": "○", "10": "☆", "11": "注", "12": "◎", "13": "▲" }, "top3": [ 8, 7, 3 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-06", "race": "セントウルステークス", "grade": "G2", "honmei": "レッドモンレーヴ", "gate": 12, "confidence": 64, "finish": 16, "invested": 1000, "payout": 330, "roi_pct": 33, "result": "PARTIAL", "model_used": "v1.5.0", "model": "v1.5.0", "url": "/races/centaur-stakes-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/centaur-stakes-2026.html#postmortem", "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 88, "F02": 82, "F03": 88, "F04": 84, "note": "◎16着（最下位）。1着○03・2着▲09・3着×01で上位3頭すべてに印。回収したのは w) のワイドBOX 03−09 の1点のみ。" }, "noise_tags": [], "tickets": [ { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 3, 9 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 330, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 3, 8 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 8, 9 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "馬連", "combo": [ 3, 12 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 9, 12 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 8, 12 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 5, 12 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 1, 12 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 3, 9, 12 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 3, 8, 9 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "other" } ], "marks": { "1": "×", "3": "○", "5": "☆", "7": "注", "8": "△", "9": "▲", "11": "注", "12": "◎", "15": "注" }, "top3": [ 3, 9, 1 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-06", "race": "紫苑ステークス", "grade": "G2", "honmei": "リアライズルミナス", "gate": 3, "confidence": 66, "finish": 7, "invested": 1000, "payout": 410, "roi_pct": 41, "result": "PARTIAL", "model_used": "v1.5.0", "model": "v1.5.0", "url": "/races/shion-stakes-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/shion-stakes-2026.html#postmortem", "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 86, "F02": 84, "F03": 88, "F04": 84, "note": "◎7着。1着04は注ヘッジ印で買い目ゼロ。3連複2−4−9が3,720円。回収は w) のワイドBOX 02−09 の1点のみ。" }, "noise_tags": [], "tickets": [ { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 6, 9 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 2, 9 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 410, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 2, 6 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 3, 6 ], "stake": 200, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "馬連", "combo": [ 3, 9 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 2, 3 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 9, 11 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "hedge" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 3, 6, 9 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 2, 6, 9 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "other" } ], "marks": { "1": "注", "2": "△", "3": "◎", "4": "注", "6": "▲", "9": "○", "10": "×", "11": "☆" }, "top3": [ 4, 2, 9 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-12", "race": "チャレンジカップ", "grade": "G3", "honmei": "ジョバンニ", "gate": 15, "confidence": 67, "finish": 1, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.5.0", "model": "v1.5.0", "url": "/races/challenge-cup-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/challenge-cup-2026.html#postmortem", "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 94, "F02": 84, "F03": 93, "F04": 88, "note": "◎が7番人気で1着。しかし2着は△08、3着は注07で、どちらも買い目ゼロ。全8点不的中。u) の定義により資金配分の失敗に分類する。" }, "noise_tags": [], "tickets": [ { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 9, 10 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 10, 11 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 9, 11 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 10, 15 ], "stake": 200, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 9, 15 ], "stake": 200, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 11, 15 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 9, 10, 15 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 5, 12 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "hedge" } ], "marks": { "2": "注", "4": "△", "5": "☆", "7": "注", "8": "△", "9": "▲", "10": "○", "11": "△", "12": "☆", "13": "△", "15": "◎" }, "top3": [ 15, 8, 7 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-13", "race": "セントライト記念", "grade": "G2", "honmei": "バステール", "gate": 10, "confidence": 65, "finish": 13, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.5.0", "model": "v1.5.0", "url": "/races/st-lite-kinen-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/st-lite-kinen-2026.html#postmortem", "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 92, "F02": 90, "F03": 88, "F04": 82, "note": "◎13着。1着は前残り保険に置いた注07（12番人気）。2着△06・3着△02で上位3頭すべてに印。3連複2-6-7が32,610円。" }, "noise_tags": [], "tickets": [ { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 5, 10 ], "stake": 200, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 8, 10 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 2, 5 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 2, 8 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 5, 8 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 5, 7 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "hedge" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 5, 8, 10 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 5, 8, 9 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "other" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 5, 10, 16 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" } ], "marks": { "2": "△", "5": "○", "6": "△", "7": "注", "8": "▲", "9": "△", "10": "◎", "16": "☆" }, "top3": [ 7, 6, 2 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-13", "race": "ローズステークス", "grade": "G2", "honmei": "タイセイボーグ", "gate": 12, "confidence": 66, "finish": 12, "invested": 1000, "payout": 1020, "roi_pct": 102, "result": "HIT", "model_used": "v1.5.0", "model": "v1.5.0", "url": "/races/rose-stakes-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/rose-stakes-2026.html#postmortem", "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 92, "F02": 88, "F03": 82, "F04": 80, "note": "◎12着（最下位）。しかし1着○07・2着▲02・3着△06で w) の非本命ワイドBOX3点が完全的中。1,020円で回収率102%。" }, "noise_tags": [], "tickets": [ { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 2, 6 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 480, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 2, 7 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 280, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 6, 7 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 260, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 2, 12 ], "stake": 200, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 7, 12 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 2, 7, 12 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 2, 6, 12 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 6, 10, 12 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 5, 7 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "hedge" } ], "marks": { "1": "△", "2": "▲", "3": "☆", "5": "注", "6": "△", "7": "○", "9": "注", "10": "△", "11": "△", "12": "◎" }, "top3": [ 7, 2, 6 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-20", "race": "オールカマー", "grade": "G2", "honmei": "レガレイラ", "gate": 7, "confidence": 62, "finish": 4, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.5.0", "model": "v1.5.0", "url": "/races/all-comers-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/all-comers-2026.html#postmortem", "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 93, "F02": 90, "F03": 90, "F04": 80, "note": "◎4着。1着は「消」とした9番人気08。2着01は△を打ちながら買い目ゼロで、発走前に資金配分の制約として予告していた馬。" }, "noise_tags": [], "tickets": [ { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 7, 9 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 7, 13 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 9, 13 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 9, 12 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 12, 13 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 3, 9 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "hedge" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 7, 9, 13 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 7, 9, 12 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 6, 7, 9 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 4, 7, 9 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" } ], "marks": { "1": "△", "3": "注", "4": "△", "6": "△", "7": "◎", "9": "○", "12": "△", "13": "▲" }, "top3": [ 8, 1, 4 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-21", "race": "神戸新聞杯", "grade": "G2", "honmei": "ロブチェン", "gate": 1, "confidence": 66, "finish": 1, "invested": 1000, "payout": 280, "roi_pct": 28, "result": "PARTIAL", "model_used": "v1.5.0", "model": "v1.5.0", "url": "/races/kobe-shimbun-hai-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/kobe-shimbun-hai-2026.html#postmortem", "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 96, "F02": 84, "F03": 94, "F04": 84, "note": "◎1着・▲2着でワイド01−04の280円のみ。○07が6着で01・07の2頭軸の3連複4点が同時に消えた。3着は買い目外の11番人気08。" }, "noise_tags": [], "tickets": [ { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 1, 4 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 280, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 1, 7 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 4, 7 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 4, 9 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 7, 9 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 3, 10 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "hedge" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 1, 4, 7 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 1, 7, 9 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 1, 3, 7 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 1, 7, 10 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" } ], "marks": { "1": "◎", "3": "△", "4": "▲", "7": "○", "9": "△", "10": "☆", "11": "△" }, "top3": [ 1, 4, 8 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "芙蓉ステークス", "grade": "OP", "honmei": "レオンティウス", "gate": 6, "confidence": 60, "finish": 5, "invested": 1000, "payout": 710, "roi_pct": 71, "result": "PARTIAL", "model_used": "v1.5.0", "model": "v1.5.0", "url": "/races/fuyo-stakes-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/fuyo-stakes-2026.html#postmortem", "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 83, "F02": 80, "F03": 82, "F04": 80, "note": "◎5着。○▲△が1-2-3で非本命ワイドBOX3点が全的中し710円。同じ3頭の3連複（660円）は持っておらず、あれば137%だった。" }, "noise_tags": [], "tickets": [ { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 2, 4 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 230, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 2, 8 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 150, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 4, 8 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 330, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 2, 6 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 6, 8 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 5, 8 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "hedge" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 4, 6 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 2, 6, 8 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 2, 4, 6 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 2, 3, 6 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" } ], "marks": { "2": "○", "3": "注", "4": "△", "5": "☆", "6": "◎", "8": "▲" }, "top3": [ 8, 4, 2 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "シリウスステークス", "grade": "G3", "honmei": "ラムジェット", "gate": 13, "confidence": 62, "finish": 7, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.5.0", "model": "v1.5.0", "url": "/races/sirius-stakes-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/sirius-stakes-2026.html#postmortem", "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 92, "F02": 80, "F03": 92, "F04": 80, "note": "◎7着。1着は○11だが、11を含む券の相方（13・15・10）がすべて圏外で0円。2着09（13番人気）・3着12（7番人気）はともに無印。" }, "noise_tags": [], "tickets": [ { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 11, 13 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 13, 15 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 10, 11 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 10, 15 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 11, 15 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 3, 6 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "hedge" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 11, 13, 15 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 10, 11, 13 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 6, 11, 13 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 2, 11, 13 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" } ], "marks": { "2": "注", "3": "☆", "6": "△", "8": "注", "10": "△", "11": "○", "13": "◎", "14": "注", "15": "▲" }, "top3": [ 11, 9, 12 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "race": "シリウスステークス（追加予想）", "grade": "G3", "honmei": "サイモンザナドゥ", "gate": 10, "confidence": null, "finish": 10, "invested": 500, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.5.0外（追加予想）", "model": "v1.5.0外（追加予想）", "url": "/races/sirius-stakes-2026.html#additional", "postmortem": "/races/sirius-stakes-2026.html#postmortem", "conf_breakdown": { "note": "発走1時間前に当日の馬場傾向と馬体重から組んだ500円。全5点に10を含み、v1.5.0 のルール外。10が10着で0円。" }, "noise_tags": [] }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "race": "スプリンターズステークス", "grade": "G1", "honmei": "ルガル", "gate": 11, "confidence": 66, "finish": 14, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.5.0", "model": "v1.5.0", "url": "/races/sprinters-stakes-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/sprinters-stakes-2026.html#postmortem", "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 90, "F02": 88, "F03": 88, "F04": 82, "note": "◎14着。1〜3着（16・06・05）はすべて注。06と05は買い目なし、16は前残り保険のワイド14−16だけで相方14が6着。3連複5−6−16は73,620円。" }, "noise_tags": [], "tickets": [ { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 11, 13 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 11, 15 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 11, 14 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 13, 14 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 13, 15 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 14, 15 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 14, 16 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "hedge" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 11, 13, 15 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 9, 11, 13 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 3, 11, 15 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" } ], "marks": { "3": "☆", "4": "注", "5": "注", "6": "注", "8": "注", "9": "△", "10": "注", "11": "◎", "13": "○", "14": "△", "15": "▲", "16": "注" }, "top3": [ 16, 6, 5 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-03", "race": "グリーンチャンネルカップ", "grade": "L", "honmei": "ドンエレクトス", "gate": 5, "confidence": 65, "finish": 1, "invested": 1000, "payout": 1970, "roi_pct": 197, "result": "HIT", "model_used": "v1.5.0", "model": "v1.5.0", "url": "/races/green-channel-cup-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/green-channel-cup-2026.html#postmortem", "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 86, "F02": 86, "F03": 84, "F04": 84, "note": "◎1着・○2着・△3着。3連複01−04−05（1,320円）とワイド2点で1,970円。◎の勝利が初めて利益になった。印を打った7頭すべてに券があった。" }, "noise_tags": [], "tickets": [ { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 4, 5 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 270, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 2, 5 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 1, 4 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 380, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 1, 11 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 4, 11 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 10, 11 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "other" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 1, 8 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "hedge" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 1, 4, 5 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 1320, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 4, 5, 11 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 1, 4, 11 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "other" } ], "marks": { "1": "△", "2": "△", "4": "○", "5": "◎", "8": "注", "10": "☆", "11": "▲" }, "top3": [ 5, 4, 1 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-04", "race": "京都大賞典", "grade": "G2", "honmei": "アクアヴァーナル", "gate": 6, "confidence": 64, "finish": 3, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.5.0", "model": "v1.5.0", "url": "/races/kyoto-daishoten-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/kyoto-daishoten-2026.html#postmortem", "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 86, "F02": 84, "F03": 86, "F04": 82, "note": "◎3着、○18は9着。1着12・2着10はともに×（11番人気・8番人気）。上位4頭は3・4・5・9着で10点すべて不的中。◎の複勝なら210円だった。" }, "noise_tags": [], "tickets": [ { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 6, 18 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 3, 4 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 3, 18 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 4, 18 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 11, 14 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "hedge" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 2, 4 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "hedge" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 3, 4, 6 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 3, 4, 18 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "other" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 3, 6, 18 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 4, 6, 18 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" } ], "marks": { "1": "△", "2": "☆", "3": "▲", "4": "△", "6": "◎", "11": "注", "14": "☆", "18": "○" }, "top3": [ 12, 10, 6 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-04", "race": "毎日王冠", "grade": "G2", "honmei": "ライヒスアドラー", "gate": 6, "confidence": 63, "finish": 5, "invested": 1000, "payout": 2820, "roi_pct": 282, "result": "HIT", "model_used": "v1.5.0", "model": "v1.5.0", "url": "/races/mainichi-okan-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/mainichi-okan-2026.html#postmortem", "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 86, "F02": 86, "F03": 86, "F04": 86, "note": "▲01が1着、注13が2着。前残り保険のワイド01−13が2,820円で、検証で初めて保険の券が的中。◎06は5着、○02は7着、3着は×03。" }, "noise_tags": [], "tickets": [ { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 2, 6 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 1, 6 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 1, 2 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 1, 4 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 2, 4 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 6, 9 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 1, 13 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 2820, "role": "hedge" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 1, 2, 6 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 1, 4, 6 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 1, 2, 4 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "other" } ], "marks": { "1": "▲", "2": "○", "4": "△", "6": "◎", "9": "☆", "13": "注" }, "top3": [ 1, 13, 3 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-04", "race": "凱旋門賞", "grade": "G1", "honmei": "モルティーズクロス", "gate": 14, "confidence": 63, "finish": 6, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.5.0", "model": "v1.5.0", "url": "/races/arc-de-triomphe-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/arc-de-triomphe-2026.html#postmortem", "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 90, "F02": 92, "F03": 92, "F04": 94, "note": "○01が連覇（単勝310円）。2着07は見送った次点、3着16も×。☆10が短クビ差の4着、▲09は5着、◎14は6着、△11は7着。10点すべて不的中。" }, "noise_tags": [], "tickets": [ { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 1, 14 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 1, 9 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 1, 11 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 9, 11 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 1, 9, 14 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 1, 11, 14 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 9, 11, 14 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 1, 9, 11 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "other" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 10, 14 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 5, 9 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "hedge" } ], "marks": { "1": "○", "5": "注", "9": "▲", "10": "☆", "11": "△", "14": "◎" }, "top3": [ 1, 7, 16 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-04", "race": "凱旋門賞（日本馬応援票）", "grade": "G1", "honmei": "メイショウタバル", "gate": 5, "confidence": null, "finish": 14, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.5.0外（追加予想）", "model": "v1.5.0外（追加予想）", "url": "/races/arc-de-triomphe-2026.html#additional", "postmortem": "/races/arc-de-triomphe-2026.html#postmortem", "conf_breakdown": { "note": "日本馬2頭（04・05）の好走を応援する別枠の1,000円。v1.5.0 のモデル外。単勝05が300円。05は14着、04は11着で0円。" }, "noise_tags": [] }, { "date": "2026-10-07", "race": "ジャパンダートクラシック", "grade": "JpnI", "honmei": "フィンガー", "gate": 10, "confidence": 64, "finish": 9, "invested": 1000, "payout": 390, "roi_pct": 39, "result": "PARTIAL", "model_used": "v1.5.0", "model": "v1.5.0", "url": "/races/japan-dirt-classic-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/japan-dirt-classic-2026.html#postmortem", "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 90, "F02": 92, "F03": 90, "F04": 72, "note": "▲03・☆11・△05で1-2-3。前半600m34.0秒の消耗戦で、逃げた◎10は9着、2番手の○15は16着。14番手から差した03と6番手の11によるワイド03−11（390円、先行勢消耗の保険）だけが的中。3連複03−05−11（2,560円）は持っていなかった。" }, "noise_tags": [], "tickets": [ { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 1, 3 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 1, 15 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 3, 15 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 3, 10 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 5, 13 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "hedge" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 3, 11 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 390, "role": "hedge" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 1, 3, 10 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 1, 3, 15 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "other" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 1, 10, 15 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 3, 10, 15 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" } ], "marks": { "1": "△", "3": "▲", "5": "△", "10": "◎", "11": "☆", "13": "注", "15": "○" }, "top3": [ 3, 11, 5 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "サウジアラビアロイヤルカップ", "grade": "G3", "honmei": "ベルウッドディープ", "gate": 6, "confidence": 64, "finish": 5, "invested": 1000, "payout": 1930, "roi_pct": 193, "result": "HIT", "model_used": "v1.5.0", "model": "v1.5.0", "url": "/races/saudi-arabia-royal-cup-2026.html", "postmortem": "/races/saudi-arabia-royal-cup-2026.html#postmortem", "conf_breakdown": { "F01": 84, "F02": 86, "F03": 84, "F04": 86, "note": "△04・☆03・○05で1-2-3。◎06は5着。BOXのワイド04−05（380円）と前残り保険の03−04（1,550円）で1,930円。保険は的中したが、04は後方から差しており想定した前残りの形ではない。" }, "noise_tags": [], "tickets": [ { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 4, 5 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 380, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 4, 9 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 5, 9 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "box" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 5, 6 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 6, 9 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 3, 4 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 1550, "role": "hedge" }, { "bet": "ワイド", "combo": [ 5, 10 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "other" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 5, 6, 9 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 4, 5, 6 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" }, { "bet": "3連複", "combo": [ 4, 6, 9 ], "stake": 100, "payout": 0, "role": "axis" } ], "marks": { "3": "☆", "4": "△", "5": "○", "6": "◎", "9": "▲", "10": "注" }, "top3": [ 4, 3, 5 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-10", "race": "サウジアラビアロイヤルカップ（追加3連単）", "grade": "G3", "honmei": "ベルウッドディープ", "gate": 6, "confidence": null, "finish": 5, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "result": "MISS", "model_used": "v1.5.0外（追加予想）", "model": "v1.5.0外（追加予想）", "url": "/races/saudi-arabia-royal-cup-2026.html#additional", "postmortem": "/races/saudi-arabia-royal-cup-2026.html#postmortem", "conf_breakdown": { "note": "JRAスーパープレミアム（払戻率80%）開催に合わせた別枠の3連単10点。v1.5.0 のモデル外。結果は4→3→5（30,580円）で、△04を1着に置いた券がなく0円。" }, "noise_tags": [] } ], "models": [ { "version": "v1.0", "races": 3, "invested": 3500, "payout": 3360, "roi_pct": 96, "notes": "初期版。中山GJ・皐月賞などの結果からv1.1以降へ更新" }, { "version": "v1.1", "races": 4, "invested": 3500, "payout": 2340, "roi_pct": 67, "notes": "物理補正を拡張。VM・栗東Sなどの教訓を次版へ反映" }, { "version": "v1.2", "races": 0, "invested": 0, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": null, "notes": "5月18日リリースの移行版。発走前適用レースなし" }, { "version": "v1.3", "races": 2, "invested": 2000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "notes": "初期4ファクター運用。欅S・平安Sの教訓からv1.4へ更新" }, { "version": "v1.4", "races": 1, "invested": 1000, "payout": 1150, "roi_pct": 115, "notes": "非相関シナリオ・ヘッジをオークスで発走前適用" }, { "version": "v1.4.1", "races": 1, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "notes": "Kinetic Trap Patch。日本ダービーでCFI過大評価が露呈" }, { "version": "v1.4.2", "races": 6, "invested": 6000, "payout": 7850, "roi_pct": 131, "notes": "Class-over-Fatigue。宝塚447%・函館280%・博多58%を含む発走前適用6戦" }, { "version": "v1.4.3", "races": 0, "invested": 0, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": null, "notes": "検証結果から作成した移行版。発走前適用レースなし" }, { "version": "v1.4.4", "races": 3, "invested": 3000, "payout": 2430, "roi_pct": 81, "notes": "大沼65% / 北九州178% / ジュライ0%。Bias-First違反がジュライ全損" }, { "version": "v1.4.5", "races": 2, "invested": 2000, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "notes": "定性運用2戦。函館2歳S・小倉記念とも買い目の相関集中で全損し、v1.4.6へ更新" }, { "version": "v1.4.6", "races": 11, "invested": 11000, "payout": 2160, "roi_pct": 20, "notes": "Portfolio Decorrelation Gate。固定検証を11/30戦で打ち切り。的中は11戦で1戦のみ。買い目の重複は減らせたが、独立出口を比率でしか規定しておらず中身が1頭に集中。直近6戦で◎が連続して馬券圏外となり、原因が配分ではなく本命選定にあると判明したため v1.5.0 へ移行" }, { "version": "v1.5.0", "races": 20, "invested": 21000, "payout": 11150, "roi_pct": 53, "notes": "Contrarian Core & Exit BOX。固定検証2/30戦。中京2歳Sで◎が7戦ぶりに勝利し66%、新潟記念は v) 不適合のまま公開して0%。両戦とも非本命ワイドBOXに入れる3頭の選択が課題として残った" }, { "version": "v1.5.0外（追加予想）", "races": 3, "invested": 2500, "payout": 0, "roi_pct": 0, "notes": "v1.5.0 のルールに沿わずに発走前に公開した追加予想。通算の収支には含め、固定検証の集計からは分けて記録する。" } ], "lessons": [ { "id": "cfi-overweight", "title": "CFI過大評価", "races": [ "日本ダービー" ], "fix": "v1.4.2 Class-over-Fatigue Override" }, { "id": "bias-first", "title": "馬場バイアス未反映", "races": [ "安田記念" ], "fix": "v1.4.4 Bias-First Override" }, { "id": "rebound", "title": "休養明け反動", "races": [ "府中牝馬S" ], "fix": "v1.4.4 Rebound Fatigue Index" }, { "id": "mark-rank", "title": "印序列と総合スコアの乖離", "races": [ "ラジオNIKKEI賞" ], "fix": "v1.4.3 Mark-Rank Coherence" }, { "id": "shadow-alpha", "title": "印外能力上位の取りこぼし", "races": [ "函館記念", "ラジオNIKKEI賞", "博多ステークス" ], "fix": "v1.4.3 Shadow-Alpha Hedge" }, { "id": "draw-trap-overweight", "title": "枠順トラップの過大適用", "races": [ "博多ステークス" ], "fix": "Ability-over-Draw Cap（F01高位馬への枠順減点で本命降格しない）" }, { "id": "portfolio-correlation", "title": "同一軸・同一相手仮説への資金集中", "races": [ "函館2歳ステークス", "小倉記念" ], "fix": "v1.4.6 Portfolio Decorrelation Gate（単一シナリオ80%上限・独立出口20%以上）" }, { "id": "contradiction-to-ticket", "title": "認識した反証材料の買い目未反映", "races": [ "函館2歳ステークス", "小倉記念" ], "fix": "v1.4.6 Contradiction-to-Ticket Lock（採用・確信度引下げ・見送りのいずれかを強制）" } ], "noise_taxonomy": { "model": "モデル欠陥・読み違い（学習対象）", "physical": "不可抗力・物理ノイズ（詰まり・外枠・展開急変など）", "value": "市場に対するエッジが機能した局面" }, "overseas": { "note": "海外レースは国内v1.4.6固定検証・通算ROIの集計対象外。本線投資のみ記録。応援枠は別記録。", "races": [ { "date": "2026-07-25", "race": "キングジョージ6世＆クイーンエリザベスS", "grade": "G1", "venue": "Ascot", "honmei": "カランダガン", "gate": 7, "confidence": 82, "finish": 2, "marks": { "honmei": "◎1", "winner_mark": "▲6", "order": "▲6-◎1-○9" }, "invested": 1000, "payout": 3140, "payout_status": "official", "roi_pct": 314, "profit": 2140, "result": "HIT", "hit_tickets": [ "馬単 6→1（2,310円）", "三連複 1-9-6（830円）" ], "cheer_invested": 500, "cheer_payout": 0, "model": "v1.4.6 overseas-reference", "url": "/races/king-george-2026.html", "postmortem": "消耗戦で斤量有利の▲6が逆転。◎連対・○3着。本線1,000円→3,140円（314%）。応援枠全損。国内固定検証カウント外。", "exclude_from_freeze": true, "exclude_from_domestic_summary": true }, { "date": "2026-08-16", "race": "ジャックルマロワ賞", "grade": "G1", "venue": "Deauville", "honmei": "プリサイス", "gate": 4, "confidence": null, "finish": 3, "marks": { "honmei": "◎10", "winner_mark": "○8", "order": "○8-▲1-◎10" }, "invested": 1000, "payout": 0, "payout_status": "official", "roi_pct": 0, "profit": -1000, "result": "MISS", "hit_tickets": [], "cheer_invested": 500, "cheer_payout": 0, "model": "v1.4.6 overseas-reference", "url": "/races/prix-jacques-le-marois-2026.html", "postmortem": "◎○▲がそのまま1-3着を独占も、並びは○→▲→◎。3連単6点は◎1着固定・馬単2点は◎2着固定で全8点不的中。Trio 8-1-10 は1ユーロ20.10ユーロで、順序を要求しない券種なら的中。応援枠500円もシックスペンス10着で全損。発走前に独立出口0%を「不適合」と明記しながら構成を変えなかった。国内固定検証カウント外。", "exclude_from_freeze": true, "exclude_from_domestic_summary": true } ] } }