{
  "meta": {
    "title": "ANCY'S BRIEFING Track Record",
    "season": "2026 spring–summer",
    "updated": "2026-07-04",
    "currency": "JPY",
    "note": "発走前公開予想を1点あたり一定額で検証したシミュレーション記録。営業実績ではなく予想精度の検証用。将来の的中・利益を保証しない。",
    "summary": {
      "races": 16,
      "invested": 16000,
      "payout": 14120,
      "roi_pct": 88,
      "honmei_win_pct": 38,
      "hits": 5,
      "partial": 1,
      "misses": 10,
      "folds": 0,
      "fold_policy": "期待値（EV）が基準未満、またはCONFが閾値未満のレースはNo Bet（FOLDED）として参加しない。2026秋シーズンより系統記録を開始。"
    }
  },
  "folds": {
    "policy": "モデルが分析しても、EV≤0 または メタ認知後のCONFが下限未満なら資金を投下しない。Foldは敗北ではなく資本防衛の成功指標。",
    "logging_since": "2026-09",
    "entries": [],
    "note": "春〜夏16戦は全戦参加（Fold記録なし）。秋G1以降、見送りレースをここに追記する。"
  },
  "races": [
    {
      "date": "2026-04-12",
      "race": "桜花賞",
      "grade": "G1",
      "honmei": "ドリームコア",
      "gate": 14,
      "confidence": 95,
      "finish": null,
      "invested": 1000,
      "payout": 0,
      "roi_pct": 0,
      "result": "MISS",
      "model": "v1.4",
      "url": "/races/oka-sho-2026.html",
      "postmortem": null,
      "conf_breakdown": {
        "F01": 94,
        "F02": 88,
        "F03": 90,
        "F04": 92,
        "note": "素質・フォーム高評価。展開読みが甘く全損。"
      },
      "noise_tags": []
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-18",
      "race": "中山グランドジャンプ",
      "grade": "J·G1",
      "honmei": "エコロデュエル",
      "gate": 6,
      "confidence": 88,
      "finish": 1,
      "invested": 1000,
      "payout": 2010,
      "roi_pct": 201,
      "result": "HIT",
      "model": "v1.4",
      "url": "/races/nakayama-grand-jump-2026.html",
      "postmortem": null,
      "conf_breakdown": {
        "F01": 86,
        "F02": 92,
        "F03": 90,
        "F04": 88,
        "note": "障害適性（F02）が主因。"
      },
      "noise_tags": []
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-19",
      "race": "皐月賞",
      "grade": "G1",
      "honmei": "ロブチェン",
      "gate": 4,
      "confidence": 92,
      "finish": 1,
      "invested": 1500,
      "payout": 1350,
      "roi_pct": 90,
      "result": "PARTIAL",
      "model": "v1.4",
      "url": "/races/satsuki-sho-2026.html",
      "postmortem": null,
      "conf_breakdown": {
        "F01": 96,
        "F02": 88,
        "F03": 90,
        "F04": 86,
        "note": "絶対能力F01が主導。一部的中。"
      },
      "noise_tags": []
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-03",
      "race": "天皇賞（春）",
      "grade": "G1",
      "honmei": "クロワデュノール",
      "gate": 7,
      "confidence": 92,
      "finish": 1,
      "invested": 1000,
      "payout": 0,
      "roi_pct": 0,
      "result": "MISS",
      "model": "v1.4",
      "url": "/races/tenno-sho-spring-2026.html",
      "postmortem": null,
      "conf_breakdown": {
        "F01": 95,
        "F02": 84,
        "F03": 94,
        "F04": 88,
        "note": "距離F03は的確。買い目設計で取りこぼし。"
      },
      "noise_tags": [
        {
          "type": "model",
          "label": "配分設計"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-10",
      "race": "NHKマイルC",
      "grade": "G1",
      "honmei": "エコロアルバ",
      "gate": 10,
      "confidence": 85,
      "finish": null,
      "invested": 500,
      "payout": 0,
      "roi_pct": 0,
      "result": "MISS",
      "model": "v1.4",
      "url": "/races/nhk-mile-cup-2026.html",
      "postmortem": null,
      "conf_breakdown": {
        "F01": 88,
        "F02": 82,
        "F03": 86,
        "F04": 84,
        "note": "マイル適性は妥当。相手関係の読み違い。"
      },
      "noise_tags": []
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-17",
      "race": "ヴィクトリアマイル",
      "grade": "G1",
      "honmei": "エンブロイダリー",
      "gate": 12,
      "confidence": 85,
      "finish": 1,
      "invested": 1000,
      "payout": 2340,
      "roi_pct": 234,
      "result": "HIT",
      "model": "v1.4",
      "url": "/races/victoria-mile-2026.html",
      "postmortem": null,
      "conf_breakdown": {
        "F01": 90,
        "F02": 86,
        "F03": 88,
        "F04": 85,
        "note": "バランス型。F01とF03が支え。"
      },
      "noise_tags": []
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-17",
      "race": "栗東S",
      "grade": "L",
      "honmei": "ジャスティンアース",
      "gate": 13,
      "confidence": 62,
      "finish": null,
      "invested": 1000,
      "payout": 0,
      "roi_pct": 0,
      "result": "MISS",
      "model": "v1.4",
      "url": "/races/ritto-s-2026.html",
      "postmortem": null,
      "conf_breakdown": {
        "F01": 78,
        "F02": 70,
        "F03": 72,
        "F04": 68,
        "note": "CONF低め。参加自体が疑問（後のFold規律の原型）。"
      },
      "noise_tags": []
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-23",
      "race": "欅S",
      "grade": "OP",
      "honmei": "ストレングス",
      "gate": null,
      "confidence": 88,
      "finish": 10,
      "invested": 1000,
      "payout": 0,
      "roi_pct": 0,
      "result": "MISS",
      "model": "v1.4",
      "url": "/races/keyaki-stakes-2026.html",
      "postmortem": "/columns/post-race-analysis-vol1.html",
      "conf_breakdown": {
        "F01": 88,
        "F02": 80,
        "F03": 82,
        "F04": 90,
        "note": "フォーム過信。"
      },
      "noise_tags": [
        {
          "type": "model",
          "label": "モデル欠陥"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-23",
      "race": "平安S",
      "grade": "G3",
      "honmei": "ハグ",
      "gate": null,
      "confidence": 88,
      "finish": 16,
      "invested": 1000,
      "payout": 0,
      "roi_pct": 0,
      "result": "MISS",
      "model": "v1.4",
      "url": "/races/heian-stakes-2026.html",
      "postmortem": "/columns/post-race-analysis-vol1.html",
      "conf_breakdown": {
        "F01": 86,
        "F02": 78,
        "F03": 80,
        "F04": 90,
        "note": "ダート適性の読み違い。"
      },
      "noise_tags": [
        {
          "type": "model",
          "label": "モデル欠陥"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-24",
      "race": "オークス",
      "grade": "G1",
      "honmei": "アランカール",
      "gate": 3,
      "confidence": 84,
      "finish": 8,
      "invested": 1000,
      "payout": 1150,
      "roi_pct": 115,
      "result": "HIT",
      "model": "v1.4.1",
      "url": "/races/oaks-2026.html",
      "postmortem": "/columns/post-race-analysis-vol2.html",
      "conf_breakdown": {
        "F01": 88,
        "F02": 72,
        "F03": 86,
        "F04": 84,
        "note": "F02（枠×ペース）が弱点。ヘッジが救った。"
      },
      "noise_tags": [
        {
          "type": "physical",
          "label": "キネティック・トラップ"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-31",
      "race": "日本ダービー",
      "grade": "G1",
      "honmei": "コンジェスタス",
      "gate": 6,
      "confidence": 88,
      "finish": 9,
      "invested": 1000,
      "payout": 0,
      "roi_pct": 0,
      "result": "MISS",
      "model": "v1.4.1",
      "url": "/races/japan-derby-2026.html",
      "postmortem": "/columns/post-race-analysis-vol3.html",
      "conf_breakdown": {
        "F01": 82,
        "F02": 84,
        "F03": 86,
        "F04": 94,
        "note": "F04（新鮮さ）過大評価。真のF01上位を降格。"
      },
      "noise_tags": [
        {
          "type": "model",
          "label": "CFI過大評価"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-07",
      "race": "安田記念",
      "grade": "G1",
      "honmei": "ガイアフォース",
      "gate": 14,
      "confidence": null,
      "finish": 2,
      "invested": 1000,
      "payout": 0,
      "roi_pct": 0,
      "result": "MISS",
      "model": "v1.4.2",
      "url": "/races/yasuda-kinen-2026.html",
      "postmortem": "/columns/post-race-analysis-vol4.html",
      "lesson": "Bias-First / 前残りヘッジ",
      "conf_breakdown": {
        "F01": 88,
        "F02": 70,
        "F03": 86,
        "F04": 84,
        "note": "差し馬場バイアスを過信。F02が誤読。"
      },
      "noise_tags": [
        {
          "type": "model",
          "label": "バイアス未反映"
        },
        {
          "type": "physical",
          "label": "前残り展開"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-14",
      "race": "宝塚記念",
      "grade": "G1",
      "honmei": "メイショウタバル",
      "gate": 16,
      "confidence": 88,
      "finish": 1,
      "invested": 1000,
      "payout": 4470,
      "roi_pct": 447,
      "result": "HIT",
      "model": "v1.4.2",
      "url": "/races/takarazuka-kinen-2026.html",
      "postmortem": "/columns/takarazuka-kinen-447-analysis.html",
      "conf_breakdown": {
        "F01": 90,
        "F02": 92,
        "F03": 94,
        "F04": 86,
        "note": "非根幹F03＋重馬場F02が的確。外枠はノイズだが克服。"
      },
      "noise_tags": [
        {
          "type": "physical",
          "label": "外枠距離ロス（克服）"
        },
        {
          "type": "value",
          "label": "Value"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-21",
      "race": "府中牝馬S",
      "grade": "G3",
      "honmei": "ヴァルキリーバース",
      "gate": 6,
      "confidence": null,
      "finish": 14,
      "invested": 1000,
      "payout": 0,
      "roi_pct": 0,
      "result": "MISS",
      "model": "v1.4.3",
      "url": "/races/fuchu-himba-stakes-2026.html",
      "postmortem": "/columns/post-race-analysis-vol4.html",
      "lesson": "Rebound CFI",
      "conf_breakdown": {
        "F01": 84,
        "F02": 80,
        "F03": 82,
        "F04": 92,
        "note": "休養明け好走の反動を未検知。"
      },
      "noise_tags": [
        {
          "type": "model",
          "label": "Rebound未適用"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-28",
      "race": "函館記念",
      "grade": "G3",
      "honmei": "ファウストラーゼン",
      "gate": 2,
      "confidence": 88,
      "finish": 1,
      "invested": 1000,
      "payout": 2800,
      "roi_pct": 280,
      "result": "HIT",
      "model": "v1.4.3",
      "url": "/races/hakodate-kinen-2026.html",
      "postmortem": "/columns/post-race-analysis-vol4.html",
      "conf_breakdown": {
        "F01": 86,
        "F02": 88,
        "F03": 84,
        "F04": 90,
        "note": "ハンデ・夏競馬適性。印外2着はShadow-Alphaの学習材料。"
      },
      "noise_tags": [
        {
          "type": "value",
          "label": "Value"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-28",
      "race": "ラジオNIKKEI賞",
      "grade": "G3",
      "honmei": "リッツパーティー",
      "gate": 5,
      "confidence": 88,
      "finish": 3,
      "invested": 1000,
      "payout": 0,
      "roi_pct": 0,
      "result": "MISS",
      "model": "v1.4.3",
      "url": "/races/radio-nikkei-sho-2026.html",
      "postmortem": "/columns/post-race-analysis-vol4.html",
      "lesson": "Mark-Rank / Shadow-Alpha",
      "conf_breakdown": {
        "F01": 88,
        "F02": 86,
        "F03": 88,
        "F04": 90,
        "note": "総合上位を▲に置いた序列ミス。"
      },
      "noise_tags": [
        {
          "type": "model",
          "label": "Mark-Rank違反"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "models": [
    {
      "version": "v1.4",
      "races": 9,
      "invested": 9000,
      "payout": 5700,
      "roi_pct": 63,
      "notes": "初期4ファクター運用"
    },
    {
      "version": "v1.4.1",
      "races": 2,
      "invested": 2000,
      "payout": 1150,
      "roi_pct": 58,
      "notes": "Kinetic Trap Patch（オークス）→ダービーでCFI過大評価が露呈"
    },
    {
      "version": "v1.4.2",
      "races": 2,
      "invested": 2000,
      "payout": 4470,
      "roi_pct": 224,
      "notes": "Class-over-Fatigue。宝塚447% / 安田0%"
    },
    {
      "version": "v1.4.3",
      "races": 3,
      "invested": 3000,
      "payout": 2800,
      "roi_pct": 93,
      "notes": "Shadow-Alpha / Mark-Rank。函館280% / 府中・ラジオ0%"
    },
    {
      "version": "v1.4.4",
      "races": 0,
      "invested": 0,
      "payout": 0,
      "roi_pct": null,
      "notes": "Bias-First・Rebound CFI・前残りヘッジ・PFロック。次戦スプリンターズSから適用"
    }
  ],
  "lessons": [
    {
      "id": "cfi-overweight",
      "title": "CFI過大評価",
      "races": [
        "日本ダービー"
      ],
      "fix": "v1.4.2 Class-over-Fatigue Override"
    },
    {
      "id": "bias-first",
      "title": "馬場バイアス未反映",
      "races": [
        "安田記念"
      ],
      "fix": "v1.4.4 Bias-First Override"
    },
    {
      "id": "rebound",
      "title": "休養明け反動",
      "races": [
        "府中牝馬S"
      ],
      "fix": "v1.4.4 Rebound Fatigue Index"
    },
    {
      "id": "mark-rank",
      "title": "印序列と総合スコアの乖離",
      "races": [
        "ラジオNIKKEI賞"
      ],
      "fix": "v1.4.3 Mark-Rank Coherence"
    },
    {
      "id": "shadow-alpha",
      "title": "印外能力上位の取りこぼし",
      "races": [
        "函館記念",
        "ラジオNIKKEI賞"
      ],
      "fix": "v1.4.3 Shadow-Alpha Hedge"
    }
  ],
  "noise_taxonomy": {
    "model": "モデル欠陥・読み違い（学習対象）",
    "physical": "不可抗力・物理ノイズ（詰まり・外枠・展開急変など）",
    "value": "市場に対するエッジが機能した局面"
  }
}